Do REITs do well during recession?
REITs. REITs allow investors to pool their money and purchase real estate properties. By law, a REIT must pay at least 90% of its income to its shareholders, providing investors with a passive income option that can be helpful during recessions.
REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.
- Defensive sector stocks and funds.
- Dividend-paying large-cap stocks.
- Government bonds and top-rated corporate bonds.
- Treasury bonds.
- Gold.
- Real estate.
- Cash and cash equivalents.
Even with inventory levels driving up prices, investing in real estate during a recession could still result in significant long-term returns.
Right now, REITs (VNQ) are at an inflection point and time is running out for investors. But now as we head into 2024, we expect the polar opposite and this should lead to an epic recovery across the REIT sector. The Fed expects at least 3 interest rate cuts in 2024 and the market is predicting even more.
The global REIT market is experiencing steady growth. According to the recent market reports, the market size is reaching an impressive $3.5 trillion in 2022 and is estimated to reach USD 4.2 trillion by 2027, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8% from 2022.
After lagging equities the past two years, REITs offer an attractive investment opportunity in 2024. The headwind of higher bond yields and central bank rate hikes is likely to abate and may turn into a tailwind if our view about an impending economic slowdown and decelerating inflation trends is correct.
You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.
Don't: Take On High-Interest Debt
It's best to avoid racking up high-interest debt during a recession. In fact, the smart move is to slash high-interest debt so you've got more cash on hand. Chances are your highest-interest debt is credit card debt.
Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.
Is it better to have cash or property in a recession?
Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.
Commercial Properties
As with residential rentals, the ideal properties are those that need few upgrades and already have long-term tenants. For short-term investments, location is also important. Recessions generally have less effect on high-income neighborhoods, so focus your efforts there.
Although a recession isn't without risk to property owners, it does offer one key upside: Recessions typically hurt the housing market more than the rental market. Fewer people want to commit to the considerable expense of buying homes during a recession, so they opt to rent instead.
Non-traded REITs have little liquidity, meaning it's difficult for investors to sell them. Publicly traded REITs have the risk of losing value as interest rates rise, which typically sends investment capital into bonds.
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
Only 9.55% of REITs had a positive total return in January. During January 2023, the average REIT had a strong +11.77% return, whereas REITs had a much rougher start to 2024 with a -5.72% total return.
Does Warren Buffett invest in REITs? The short answer is yes. Berkshire Hathaway does allocate capital real estate ownership throughout REITs. Learn Warren Buffett REIT investments below.
REITs don't have to pay a corporate tax, but the downside is that REIT dividends are typically taxed at a higher rate than other investments. Oftentimes, dividends are taxed at the same rate as long-term capital gains, which for many people, is generally lower than the rate at which their regular income is taxed.
According to expert panelists at the recent Nareit REITworld annual conference, 2024 could be a year of opportunity for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They added a note of caution, however, that there are still headwinds affecting investor perspectives on REITs and capital markets in general.
With rate cuts on the horizon, dividend yields for REITs may look more favorable than yields on fixed-income securities and money market accounts. However, REIT stocks are only as good as the properties they own — and some real estate sectors may be better positioned than others.
Do REITs benefit from inflation?
REIT investors have an expectation that a REIT's dividends will keep up with inflation. Historically, this has worked well. However, we can't forget, at least for publicly-traded REITs, that they are still traded like stocks. As interest rates rise, they can depress the price of these REITs.
REITs provide natural protection against inflation. Real estate rents and values tend to increase when prices do. This supports REIT dividend growth and provides a reliable stream of income even during inflationary periods.
Healthcare Providers. If any industry can be said to be recession-proof, it's healthcare. People get sick in good times and bad, so the healthcare industry isn't likely to have the same level of cutbacks or job losses that other less essential businesses may experience.
- Cut living expenses. ...
- Build an emergency fund. ...
- Develop new skills. ...
- Speak with a financial adviser. ...
- Create passive income sources. ...
- Start a business. ...
- Consumer staples. ...
- Bonds.
Industries affected most include retail, restaurants, travel/tourism, leisure/hospitality, service purveyors, real estate, & manufacturing/warehouse. Despite the severity of any past downturn, markets have always recovered, and in many cases, they have seen a monster rebound.
